The Beef and Pork Market Rollercoaster: What’s Really Driving Prices?
If you’ve been keeping an eye on the meat market, you’ve likely noticed some wild swings lately. On October 16, 2025, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported a rebound in hog prices after a two-week high, while beef futures held steady as the market cooled from recent peaks. But here’s where it gets interesting: what’s behind these shifts, and why should you care? Let’s break it down in a way that even beginners can follow.
Cattle Futures: A Tale of Supply, Demand, and Profit-Taking
CME cattle futures ended the day mixed, according to Reuters. Tight supplies and higher choice beef values initially propped up the market, but profit-taking and technical selling trimmed the gains. Live and feeder cattle futures had hit contract highs earlier in the week after nearly two weeks of consecutive advances, pushing them into overbought territory. And this is the part most people miss: when markets get overbought, they’re ripe for a pullback, which is exactly what we saw.
The Brazil Factor: A Small Stumbling Block?
Adding to the uncertainty, news broke that US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva were set to discuss US tariffs on Brazilian goods the following day. Brazil supplies 2.6% of US beef consumption, which might seem small, but it’s enough to rattle the market. Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale Inc., noted, ‘That’s maybe a small stumbling block for today on the cattle side.’ But is it more than just a minor hiccup? Could this conversation spark broader trade tensions that impact global meat prices? It’s a question worth pondering.
Beef Prices: High, But Not as High as Last Month
Wholesale beef prices have retreated from last month’s historic highs, though choice and select cuts remain pricey. The choice boxed beef cutout climbed $2.06 to $366.48 per hundredweight on Wednesday, a two-week high, while the select cutout dipped $1.39 to $349.16 per hundredweight. Meanwhile, beef packer margins are still deep in the red, with estimated losses of $197.95 per head—up from $175.50 a week ago. What does this mean for consumers? Higher prices at the grocery store, at least for now.
Hog Futures: A Technical Rebound or a Sign of Things to Come?
CME lean hog futures closed higher on Wednesday, driven by short-covering and a technical rebound after recent losses. December hogs rose 0.450 cents to 83.600 cents per pound, marking only the third gain in the past 13 sessions. But is this a fleeting recovery or the start of a longer-term trend? With global supply chains still fragile, it’s hard to say.
The Controversial Question: Are Meat Prices Here to Stay?
Here’s where it gets controversial: Are these price fluctuations a temporary blip, or are they a sign of deeper issues in the global meat market? Some argue that tight supplies and trade tensions will keep prices elevated for the foreseeable future. Others believe the market will self-correct as production ramps up. What do you think? Are we headed for a new normal in meat pricing, or is this just another bump in the road? Let us know in the comments—we’d love to hear your take!
